Future Pangea

Scientists expect the continents to join into a new supercontinent in about 200 to 300 million years. There are four named ideas for what it will look like: Pangea Proxima, Novopangea, Aurica and Amasia.

Last updated 11 October 2026

Key facts

1. A 2018 study compared four scenarios for the next supercontinent and placed its gathering about 200 to 300 million years from now. Davies, Green and Duarte (2018), Back to the future: testing different scenarios for the next supercontinent gathering, Global and Planetary Change 169
2. Amasia was proposed from the idea that each new supercontinent forms about 90 degrees away from the center of the last one, which would put it over the Arctic. Mitchell, Kilian and Evans (2012), Supercontinent cycles and the calculation of absolute palaeolongitude in deep time, Nature 482
3. Aurica comes from a model where subduction starts in the Atlantic, so both the Atlantic and the Pacific close. Duarte, Schellart and Rosas (2018), The future of Earth's oceans: consequences of subduction initiation in the Atlantic and implications for supercontinent formation, Geological Magazine 155
4. In the MULLER2019 plate model, the South Atlantic between Natal and Lagos widened by about 3.6 cm a year over the last 20 million years, and the North Atlantic between New York and Lisbon by about 2.6 cm a year. Müller et al. (2019), A global plate model including lithospheric deformation along major rifts and orogens since the Triassic, Tectonics 38
5. USGS gives an average spreading rate of about 2.5 cm a year for the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. USGS, This Dynamic Earth: Understanding plate motions

The four scenarios

The continents keep moving a few centimeters a year, so a new supercontinent Supercontinent. A large landmass made of most or all of the continents joined together, such as Pangea. Source is expected in the far future. What it looks like depends on which ocean closes. The four named ideas below are compared in Davies, Green and Duarte (2018).

Data source: Davies, Green and Duarte (2018); Duarte et al. (2018); Mitchell et al. (2012), summarized from the papers.

Pangea Proxima

Today the Atlantic is widening. In this scenario, subduction starts along its edges and the ocean begins to close. The Americas swing back toward Europe and Africa, rebuilding a supercontinent close to where Pangea sat. It was first called Pangea Ultima.

Novopangea

Here the Atlantic keeps opening and the Pacific closes instead. The Americas move west until they meet Asia and Australia, so the new landmass forms on the opposite side of the globe from Pangea.

Aurica

Proposed by Duarte and colleagues, this scenario has both the Atlantic and the Pacific closing. A new ocean opens through Asia, and the supercontinent gathers around Australia and the Americas, which gives it its name.

Amasia

Mitchell and colleagues found that past supercontinents formed about 90 degrees away from the center of the one before. Applied to Pangea, that puts the next one over the Arctic, with the Americas and Asia joined across the North Pole.

How it works: three ways a supercontinent can form

1. Introversion. The interior ocean, the one opened when the last supercontinent split, closes again. Pangea Proxima works this way.
2. Extroversion. The interior ocean keeps opening and the old outer ocean closes. Novopangea works this way.
3. Both at once. The interior and outer oceans both close, as in Aurica.
4. Orthoversion. The continents gather about 90 degrees away from the last supercontinent's center, as in Amasia.

Which path wins depends on where new subduction zones start, which no model can yet say for certain. That is why the four scenarios all stay in play.

What the oceans are doing today

A useful yardstick: how fast the Atlantic is opening now. We moved present-day points back 20 million years with the MULLER2019 plate model Plate model. A set of plate outlines and rotations that moves features on each plate back to where they were at a past age. Source and measured the change.

Data source: GPlates Web Service, model MULLER2019, CC BY 4.0. Download: CSV .

For Pangea Proxima or Aurica to happen, this widening has to stop and reverse. For Novopangea, it carries on. Watch the Atlantic open step by step on the continental drift map.

Examples: what each scenario means for the oceans

Data source: Davies, Green and Duarte (2018); Duarte et al. (2018); Mitchell et al. (2012), summarized from the papers.

Related

The past supercontinents are on the supercontinents timeline, with maps of Rodinia, Gondwana and Pangea. The plates that will carry the continents are on the tectonic plates map.